NYC Weather: Rain Returns Thursday as Cold Front Brings Heavy Coastal Downpours
The NYC weather picture changes this week as showers arrive Thursday and a cold front brings heavier rain Friday. Coastal totals remain uncertain, with forecasts ranging from light to 2-3 inches.
Rain is returning to New York City and the surrounding tri-state area after the longest dry stretch of the year, and the NYC weather outlook is turning wet for the end of the week. Scattered showers are expected to start Thursday, with heavier rain forecast Thursday night into Friday as a cold front moves through the region.
Showers arrive Thursday, heavier rain Friday
Showers will begin to reach the area Thursday morning, ahead of the front. Forecasters say the rain will not fall all day and most of it will be light, but an umbrella is advised for Thursday.
By Thursday night into Friday morning, the cold front is expected to stretch along the East Coast with a band of deep moisture ahead of it. Rain with embedded thunder is expected to reach the immediate coast Friday morning and continue on and off through the day. Forecasters do not expect severe weather.
Coastal totals remain uncertain
Inland areas are not expected to see bands of heavy rain, with totals in most places well under half an inch. The coast is harder to call. Forecasters say the exact position of the heaviest rain band remains uncertain, and that will largely decide whether coastal areas get a little rain or a lot.
The American forecast model places the heaviest rain just clipping the coast, which could bring as many as 2 to 3 inches or more to Long Island and the Jersey Shore on Friday. The European model keeps the heavy rain offshore, which would leave coastal totals closer to inland amounts. Forecasters note a small eastward shift in the front could push the heavy rain away from land, while a slight westward shift could bring it in.
Isolated flooding is possible in any areas that get hit by the heaviest downpours, according to the forecast.
New Jersey expects similar timing
In New Jersey, the National Weather Service said showers would develop first across the western part of the state on Thursday, while areas along and east of the metro area would stay mostly dry during the day. Totals of 1 to 2 inches, with locally 2 to 3 inches, are possible along the Jersey Shore, while most of the rest of the state could see a trace to an inch. Forecasters warned that because it has been dry for some time, roads may become slippery and heavy cells could trigger flash flooding.
Highs on Thursday are expected in the low to mid-70s, well above normal for early November, and Friday will remain near 70 degrees with higher humidity.
What comes next
The cold front is expected to clear by Saturday, when conditions should turn mostly dry, though a spotty shower over the weekend cannot be ruled out. Temperatures are forecast to drop noticeably, with highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s Saturday and cooler readings Sunday. Forecasters say dry weather is expected to continue into Monday and Tuesday. Forecasts for the coast may still shift before Friday, so residents should check updates closely.
What we know so far: rain begins Thursday, heavy rain is most likely Friday, and the amount that reaches the coast has not been settled.
Note: Coastal rainfall amounts have not been officially confirmed and depend on the final track of the front.
